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Prediction for CME (2022-06-01T01:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-06-01T01:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20396/-1
CME Note: CME is seen to the west in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is likely the filament eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304 near Active Region 3023 (S13W15) around 2022-06-01T00:30Z. Although there is a data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 from 05-31T23:25Z to 06-01T01:55Z, a dimming region is seen in the west after imagery reappears. This agrees with the direction the CME is headed in STEREO A COR2 imagery. From LASSOS regarding L1 signature on 06-05: No ICME - per looking at the proton density (which keeps increasing during this time period) and ion temperature (which is not low as we can expect for a CME). The solar wind bulk speed is really low during this time which can be a reason for the observed higher proton density since slower solar wind is denser. Looking at the magnetic field components, there are traces of rotations but none of them are complete and coherent rotations.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-06-05T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20398/1
Model Inputs:
2022-06-01T01:54:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=258.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2022-06-01T13:52Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-06-05T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220601_135200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 88.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2022-06-01T17:40Z

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